By Stephen Kyne, CFP

Who would have thought that we’d be starting the third year of life in a pandemic? Certainly it has had a huge impact on the economy in the last two years, and we all look forward to its influence waning. As we enter 2022, we’d like to offer our thoughts about how we see the year playing out for the economy.

In order to look ahead, we must first take stock of where we’ve been. 2021 was a fairly volatile year for the economy. Depending on which polls you read, the public was often equally (or more) concerned with the economy than it was with the ongoing pandemic. Given many of the leading economic indicators, it’s easy to understand why. 

Inflation has been a primary concern. In 2020, as a response to the near-total shutdown of our economy, the government flooded the economy with trillions of dollars. In a typical year, according to the Federal Reserve, the money in circulation grows by about 6 percent. 

In 2020, the money in circulation grew by about 30 percent. Meanwhile, supply chain issues, which persist today, meant that in-demand goods were hard to come by. The recipe for inflation is simply too many dollars chasing too few goods. We certainly had both in spades. As a result, inflation in 2021 ran about 7 percent – the highest in forty years, according to the Department of Labor. 

For much of the year, the Federal Reserve insisted that the majority of the increase in inflation was “transitory”; a position with which we disagreed. While we think the inflation picture will improve in the years to come, we think it will be several years before we see the Fed’s target rate of 2 percent. Prepare for another year of increasing prices. 

The employment landscape has been a hot topic in the past year, with what has been dubbed the “Great Resignation.” This revolves around the notion that there is an employment revolution and realignment, whereby workers are quitting their jobs en masse to pursue better opportunities, often involving working from home. According to ZipRecruiter, nearly 60 percent of workers indicate they would like a job that allows them to work from home, but only 10 percent of jobs offer than option and that number is likely to shrink as we enter post-pandemic life. The office is not dead.

By Rene A. Walrath

In 2022, hiring, recruiting, and retaining talent will continue to rapidly transform. The unemployment rates are continuing to rise and the Great Resignation will continue on in this upcoming year. This leads us to ask what will recruiting top talent look like this year?

The Great Resignation is caused by people quitting their jobs in large amounts due to low wages, poor benefits, a lack of work-life balance, and overall unhappiness at their current role. These employees are currently trying to find a job that is a better career fit for them and offers a better balance. 

Retaining talent and recruiting in 2022 will be centered around responding to these changes in the employee or candidate’s expectations due to the pandemic. 

The beginning of this pandemic forced many employees to work from home as offices shut down, which in turn caused the realization of how productive employees can be from home. Some of these employees enjoyed the remote work and the extra time that came with working from home. 

Employees now are pushing for hybrid and remote jobs where they have the ability to add flexibility into their schedule. Companies will continue to adapt to these candidate expectations in order to retain employees during a historic labor shortage by offering a workplace that fosters a better work life balance. 

COVID-19 revealed to employers how important mental health is for everyone. During a time where there is a global talent shortage—the Great Resignation—employers will continue to attract top quality candidates through increasing their workforce’s health and fostering a healthy work environment both physically and mentally. 

By Doug Ford

There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty in what lies ahead as we embark on 2022 however, when you look at the construction and the building materials industry a few things are “for sure.” The broken supply chain, lack of available workers and fallout from COVID are all factors that will continue to challenge us.

Like many industries, the supply chain for building materials and related products is going through a very difficult period in both domestic and foreign products. Experts believe the crisis will extend beyond 2022 with no immediate relief in sight. 

Current delivery delays can extend the build time on an average single-family home by three-plus months and will get worse as we enter the winter season here in the Northeast. This is extremely unfortunate since there is a lot of interest in new homes and a shortage of available homes on the market. 

The fallout from lack of product and the demands on housing are in part due to the influx of millennials entering the market. This has caused a significant increase in home pricing which adds another level of complexity. Interest rates remain low, but all other trends impacting the real estate market allow the advantage to remain with the sellers.

The lack of labor in the construction industry has been growing for decades and is now competing with many other segments for workers. A recent statistic reported by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce construction index stated that 92 percent of contractors have reported difficulty finding workers and of those, 42 percent have turned down work as a result. 

Simply put, many people aren’t aware of career opportunities in the trades. This is a topic that the Saratoga Builders Association in conjunction with many local partners have been addressing for the past three years. Until recently, schools have focused on college as the primary pathway for most students. 

By Janet Besheer

The year 2021 was a roller coaster in area real estate year with the best annual existing home sales numbers since 2006. 

Low inventory and high demand, along with very low interest rates, had properties flying off the page all year long. Median prices were at all time highs.

Experts see the sellers’ market continuing into 2022 and with a less wild seller’s market than during 2021. Home sales prices will not advance at the same pace we saw in 2021, however, the lack of supply will mean prices will continue to grow.

It is predicted that mortgage interest rates will rise at least three times during 2022. The 30-year fixed rate, currently averaging 3.3 percent, will hit closer to 3.7 percent by the end of this year. This will affect the buying power of certain buyers.

In November, the median sales price in the Capital Region jumped to $397,700 which was an increase of more than 12 percent over the median price of $330,000 in 2020. Sales prices rose for 19 months in a row across New York state. 

Home prices are predicted to continue to rise in 2022, up to 5-12 percent in most markets. Affordability will be a challenge in 2022 with home buyers grappling with higher monthly costs due to rising prices and mortgage rates.

Inventory woes will continue in 2022. In 2021 inventory was down 23 percent compared to 2020. Typical “days on market” was only 23 days and homes sold at 99.2 percent of the original list prices. Months’ supply of inventory fell to 2.8 months in November 2021—a 34.9 percent drop from 4.3 months of supply in November 2020. (A balanced market is considered to have 6-6.5 month supply). As a result, buyers in every price range were frustrated by not finding a home or by being outbid in multiple offer scenarios. 

By Kevin M. Hedley

An outlook for the coming year comes from two perspectives, one as a CPA firm practicing in the tax arena and the other as a wealth manager. 

In both cases, our work is assisting clients to navigate the turbulent world in which we live. One thing has always been clear over the last 30 years being in business. There is always some sort of turbulence. Navigating the turbulence is aided by preparation.

As we look to the 2022, it is obvious that COVID is still with us and is not going away anytime soon. Accountants and finance professionals demonstrated their role as most trusted advisers in many circumstances. We had to pivot to meet the needs of our clients in many facets, the least of which was ever-changing tax law, programs to help our clients like PPP and ERTC, and a myriad of other financial opportunities. 

We foresee there will be continuing needs due to tax law changes and other programs designed to aid small businesses. Clients look to us to assist them. We answered that call this past year and will continue to do so in 2022 and beyond. We continue to make necessary technology updates and personnel additions to meet these needs.

We continue to grow as a brick-and-mortar business with our offices here in Saratoga County as well as allow the flexibility for employees to work seamlessly from home. We are proud of the measures we put into place even before the pandemic and are thankful for the ability of our staff to adapt as quickly as they did when it became a necessity.

We, as well as others in the CPA profession, continue to find innovative ways to hire, train, and retain qualified staff during these ever-changing times.

BY Darryl Leggieri

What an eventful year it has been. As we moved through spring and summer, and vaccines became more accessible, we began to reconnect in person. With most everything open, our destination experienced strong leisure travel demand, and we needed it. 

Visitors came for the thrill of Saratoga Race Course, the excitement of Saratoga Performing Arts Center and Live Nation shows, and the natural beauty of our parks, cultural arts, museums, and thriving downtown.

Our lodging partners had a strong season with some even setting revenue records. The same can be said for our restaurants and retailers. Visitors came primarily from a three-hour radius, mostly driving to experience our charming destination. Many of whom discovered us for the first-time, electing to stay within New York state.

Meetings and events resumed in 2021 and attendees felt comfortable to travel and meet face-to-face once again. Corporate groups, associations, weddings, and the sports market were happening. Many of these events had been postponed from 2020 and were now meeting safely. These events were vital to our local economy. Not only do these event attendees occupy hotel rooms, but they also shop and dine at our local businesses, creating revenue and jobs for our community.

The Saratoga Springs Heritage Area Visitor Center reopened in July after being shut down for over a year. Once it was safe to reopen and visitors resumed travel, we knew it was time to open. We feel it is critical to have a place in our community where locals and visitors alike can go to gain important information about our city’s history, and all the amazing attributes that it has to offer.

By Tara Anne Pleat

After two years of shifting pandemic protocols and restrictions on business operations, hope abounds that 2022 is the year when the business community can focus on recovery and growth instead of survival.

We are fortunate to live in a resilient community with elected leadership who understand the needs and value of the county’s local businesses. We are fortunate to live in a community that has loyal customers who helped keep many small businesses afloat.

We are fortunate to have the Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce, which under the leadership of Kevin Hedley and Skip Carlson together with President Todd Shimkus was relentless in communications, promotions, outreach, and advocacy.

We now look to 2022 in Saratoga County with optimism. The Town of Malta is home to the headquarters of GlobalFoundries and the world’s most advanced semiconductor manufacturing facility. The construction of Fab 8 started in 2009 and propelled our area out of recession. With plans for more investments and talk of a second plant, GlobalFoundries may just lead our recovery again.

The Town of Halfmoon is now home to the Impact Athletic Center. This facility has the potential to significantly expand Saratoga’s youth sports tourism industry. With each new tournament our area will see teams, players, parents, coaches, and others stay in local hotels and dine in local restaurants. Finding ways to continue to market the county’s existing sports venues and invest in new ventures will help our hospitality sector to recover.

The U.S. Navy is nearing completion of the modernization of its facilities at the Knolls Atomic Power Laboratory in Ballston Spa. When this is done, Saratoga County will see an influx of Navy shipmen into our local economy as they train here to operate nuclear power plants onboard our Navy’s aircraft carriers and submarines. While stationed here, these shipmen rent local apartments, purchase local goods and services, and often volunteer to support local projects.