Category Archives: Economic Outlook 2024

By Darryl Leggieri 

With 2023 in the rear-view mirror, let us take a moment to reflect on what a great year it was-at least in leisure travel, and the meetings industry!

Leisure travel was anchored by many of our major attractions and cultural institutions, such as the Saratoga Performing Arts Center, Saratoga Casino Hotel, Saratoga National Historic Park, Universal Preservation Hall, Caffe Lena, National Museum of Racing, and the historic Saratoga Race Course. The track’s summer meet exceeded one million in paid attendance once again.

As for meetings and events, the return of business was fruitful. Not even rising costs, staffing shortages and a possible recession changed meeting planner confidence.

When we look at the numbers for our lodging partners, through November of 2023 year over year, Saratoga County saw steady positive growth. Over the previous 12 months, demand increased by .5 percent, Occupancy was up .8 percent, Average Daily Rate (ADR) was up 5.9 percent, and Revenue Per Available Room (REVPAR) was up 6.7 percent. The occupancy and average daily rate that our lodging partners were able to command shows a strong return to business, and breaking records for revenue in many cases!

Looking ahead:

As we start the new year, we’re absolutely delighted and honored to be designated as the official Tourism Promotion Agency (TPA) for Saratoga County. We are excited to embark on this journey to showcase the unparalleled beauty, culture, and experiences that our county has to offer. It’s an exciting time to be taking over the tourism responsibilities because travel is back. Strong domestic leisure travel demand has been the driving force in our post-pandemic comeback, and we expect it to continue and be resilient in the coming year. More authentic travel experiences will continue to gain share. Visitors want to see the real side of a destination. Wellness, unique rural settings, heritage tourism, and experiential travel (festivals, events, food and craft beverages). They want their own experiences, finding those unique Instagrammable moments. 

By Todd Shimkus, CCE

Every month, the Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce publishes what we call the “Insider’s Report,” a collection of current statistics and trends which tell us how Saratoga’s economy is performing. While the name suggests one thing, the reality is that anyone who is interested in this exclusive information can subscribe to receive the report. 

The Insider’s Report is now among our most popular emails with thousands of opens every month and an ever-increasing subscriber base, partly because it is the only place you can now get all this information in an easy-to-read format. Here is what subscribers learned in our most recent edition:

Saratoga County sales tax collections were up 7.6 percent January through November in 2023 versus the same time in 2022, from $144.6 million a year ago to $155.7 million this year. The City of Saratoga Springs has also collected 7.1 percent more in 2023 versus 2022, up from $15.2 million in 2022 to $16.27 million in 2023. These increases in sales tax collections have remained steady all year even as inflation has decreased showing that our local economy continues to expand.

Local hotels across Saratoga County reported RevPAR of $107.61 through the first eleven months of 2023, up 6.7 percent from 2022 when RevPAR was $100.81. Overall, hotel revenues for the first eleven months of this year are up 6.4 percent even as demand is up just .5 percent. The average daily rate for a room in Saratoga County has been up in all eleven months of 2023 showing a willingness of consumers and visitors to spend more to stay in Saratoga County.

By Renee Walrath 

In 2024, hiring trends will shift as organizations adapt to a changing global workforce and several key themes emerge, offering employers and job seekers a positive outlook. While 2023 started with massive layoffs and continued with that trend throughout the year to cut costs, the hiring trends for 2024 indicate a renewed sense of optimism. 

Google research shows that 39 percent of hiring leaders said they plan to increase their financial commitment toward hiring in 2024, and 70 percent of surveyed U.S. job seekers were somewhat or very confident about their prospects of finding new jobs.

As economies rebound and industries rebuild, companies prepare for growth, creating a heightened demand for skilled professionals. This positive outlook is demonstrated by increased job opportunities across various sectors, creating a favorable environment for job seekers.

Throughout 2023, we’ve seen many companies requiring workers to go back to the office and anticipate more companies to do the same in 2024, with flexibility for remote work on an as-needed basis. Many technological roles will remain remote. While working remote during and post the pandemic, companies noted that Millennials and especially Gen Z were lacking mentor and coaching since they were not working in an office. For us Baby Boomers, it was important for us to learn from our mentors and peers in the office to advance our career. It’s much easier to ask a question when a colleague is sitting right next to you. Listening to other peers in the office discuss a work problem and solving it is how others learn their industry quicker.  

BY PETE BARDUNIAS

Hopefully 2024 is the year that we stop letting the urbanists define what a downtown is in Saratoga County. Many communities seem to look at their development options and needs through the lens of Saratoga Springs: a centralized mixed-use business district with housing, restaurants, mass transit options, sidewalks, and more, with decades of planning and development along the way.  In Saratoga Springs this works very well, and all of us who live in this County are fortunate to have such a city to attract the masses for racing season (which this year will include two major meets), or for the arts, cultural festivals, and attractions such as the City Center, the sprawling Spa Park, SPAC, and Universal Preservation Hall.  But should we aspire to do this everywhere?

Take Clifton Park. Decades of planning have been incorporated in developing the form-based code that guides planning for the town, especially in the vicinity of Exit 9.  The same thing has been unfolding in Malta in recent years. Yet as readers of this publication know, those towns are very different in design and character from Saratoga.  

Is that a bad thing? Some people would say so. In fact, many communities in our county are often derided as being examples of sprawl, or visionless, or even inconsequential, because they don’t match the description that is considered ideal.  

Many communities struggle to find identity when identity is staring them in the face. Do we have to define our downtown in the traditional, textbook sense, or can we just accept these communities as they are? Clifton Park’s town center area, as it’s more frequently called, has some of the most wonderful places to shop, eat, work, walk around and recreate in the entire county.  The new Town Center Park is adjacent to the business district. There’s more to do just west of Exit 9 than in many of the more traditional-looking downtowns in the Capital Region. Just to the east, Halfmoon is now developing a similar segment of town which will look very much like a town center or downtown area. What about the Town of Milton? Milton is a great community with a unique town center. Forget about definitions; stand by the Town Hall, and go for a walk. It’s interesting how much you can find within a short distance. There are shops, stores (including the largest NAPA auto parts store in the USA), some places to eat or get ice cream, and a very pleasant town park with trails, all accessible from nearby residential housing of different income levels.  And there is an extensive network of sidewalks.   No one would ever dare call this a Downtown, yet this section of the Town of Milton contains pretty much everything one would want in a downtown.  It’s just packaged differently.  

By Mark Shaw

I guess the recession is cancelled. Who knows, right? The world seems a little upside down, but as everyone knows life continues to go on. What we are seeing in the technology space is very interesting as we have, for most intents and purposes, been immune to the economic tides of layoffs and downsizing. This did not hold true in 2023, and so far, 2024 is starting off with a bang. Over 24 tech firms have already had layoffs in 11 days into this year. The big companies have over-hired during the good times and are trimming now. Technology is often the canary in the coal mine. What happens there flows down to the more stable and long-term organizations in healthcare and manufacturing. 

What does this mean to you and your business? It means that the pendulum is swinging again. The rise of good economic times buoyed by the funds from PPP, EIDL, and for some, the ERC (All government programs through COVID-19) are starting to come to an end. The funds have been used and now we are back to equilibrium. As you look over your staff and study your business trends, you might also find yourself needing to reduce staffing to keep moving forward. 

One area everyone worried about making any cuts is typically in the technology area. These people have special skills that are often, in our area, hard to find. You trust your IT person to be making good choices, to be protecting you from threats, and most importantly to just make “IT” work.

But what do you do when the realization that your beloved IT person is moving on to another role, perhaps in another state or country? What if that resource is unable to grow with the big plans you have made for success in 2024. What if they need some help because the day-to-day is burying them to the point their project timelines are slipping?

By Doug Ford

It’s that time of year again when we look forward and do our best to make an educated forecast for the year ahead. However, before we can do that, we do need to look backwards to set the stage for the year that lies ahead. As with many other businesses, the construction industry did not break any records nor allow for a lot of optimism, but that was expected.  Unlike many other industries the construction industry benefited from people working and staying at home. A lot of unplanned money was invested to remodel, upgrade, and put in home offices to allow for an enjoyable and productive workspace at home while they waited out the COVID pandemic. 

2023 was a “wait and see’ year. 2024 is lining up to be a “back to normal” affair for the housing industry. So, what does the year ahead have in store for the construction industry and those that support the trades like Curtis Lumber. I will do my best to break it down but I’m a lot more optimistic going into 2024 than the year we just completed. However, it’s not all bright and rosy. This year will have many carry-over challenges from last year, but the recent trend indicates a more favorable outlook.

Mortgage rate volatility and uncertainty around the Fed policy along with inflation have all contributed to interest rates that were not affordable or desirable to many that were in the market for a new home. With these three forces now moving in the right direction and likely to improve they could provide additional relief to those sitting on the sidelines. Locally the medium- to lower-end home categories were impacted more than the higher end and multifamily segments, as would be expected. The forecast for housing is optimistic but hinges on continued moderation of inflation and that the Federal Reserve will continue easing its stance on interest rates.

By Cecil Provost

2023 was another “interesting” year in Saratoga real estate and home building… but we haven’t had a “normal” year in quite some time, have we?

In local residential real estate, although interest rates and prices both jumped, the demand continued to exceed the listing inventory in 2023. Homeowners with 3 percent fixed rate mortgages aren’t selling unless necessary (and that won’t change anytime soon). So, when a new listing hit the hotsheet in 2023 we saw immediate activity, multiple offers, rapid sales, and higher prices. 

Although the number of closed sales was relatively low due to limited inventory, our median sale price increased nearly 10 percent in 2023, the average market time was only 24 days (in my experience 90 days is “normal” in our area, and I’ve seen it as high as 130 days), and most sellers got full price or better (our historical average is 96.5 percent). In a “normal” year the higher prices and interest rates would have made selling a home more difficult, but demand is so overwhelming in our area that the only listings that don’t sell in 45 days are the ones that are grossly overpriced.

As a result, many potential home buyers turned to my new construction.  Every good builder and subcontractor in our region is buried with work. Our company, Saratoga Construction, received an unprecedented number of new customer inquiries in 2023 (well over 100 per month), and shattered our previous records for both number of home sales and total sales volume, despite much higher construction prices and interest rates. (Construction costs were up about 10 percent in 2023). Thankfully, most of the supply chain issues that we experienced during the pandemic have been resolved, but there’s still a huge shortage of skilled workers in our area.

By Jim Siplon

A wise mentor once told me, “If you can’t explain what you are doing and why you are doing it to your Grandmother, you don’t really understand your work like you think you do.” I have thought of that advice often as I am asked to help others understand the accelerating pace of change facing our business and collective communities. How would I explain to my now departed grandmother, a wise and kind woman who had lived through the Spanish Flu pandemic, the Great Depression and two World Wars by the time she was 35, what we do in our quest to position our area for long term success and have it make sense?

Perhaps by sharing the same ideas I do with our business and public leaders when I meet with them to discuss what economic development is and why it matters to them…we work together to build sustainable communities, and the economies that drive them. In this context, sustainability is an broader ambition than the somewhat more narrow environmental one that it is often used to describe. The Oxford Dictionary defines sustainability as “the ability to be maintained at a certain rate or level.” In other words, we endeavor to create working communities that have what they need to keep going, to endure and hopefully thrive. 

For a long time, we associated our role in this ongoing challenge as advocates for the investments needed, such as public infrastructure and attractors of employers. The idea was that critical assets such as roads, power, water and sewer systems would attract new or entice existing employers to create jobs that would, in turn, underpin our local economy with wages and our municipalities with tax base. While that is still true, we have learned that it is only part of the work that must be done to chart a path toward long term success.

Employers need more than roads and sewers. They need workers in a world where the overall population is aging and the workforce shrinking. Those workers in turn need housing to move into, transportation and child care, among other things. Increasingly, our economy also needs to acknowledge and meet the emerging needs of micro-business and individuals to attract this often unseen part of our overall panorama – things like broadband and entrepreneurial support to help these newer parts of our economy and community also contribute and thrive. More deeply engaging these often unseen but vital new residents and micro businesses is a key area of investment for us.

Chad Kiesow, Chief Operating Officer at Stewart’s Shops Corp., has been elected the 2024 Chair of the Board of Directors of the Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce. Kiesow assumed this role on January 1, 2024, after Amy Smith of Saratoga Arms Hotel completed her one-year term as Chair of the Board and now becomes the Immediate Past Chair.

“I am honored to have the opportunity to lead the Saratoga County Chamber’s Board of Directors in 2024, a year that will undoubtedly be historic as our community prepares to host the Belmont Stakes this coming June,” Kiesow said. “Beyond working to maximize the economic and promotional opportunity for Saratoga resulting from this historic event, the Chamber will continue to be a visible and vocal promoter and advocate for our many small locally owned businesses via our SCORE small business counseling program, the Upstate of Business news segment in partnership with WNYT, and our award-winning Love Our Locals campaign. While Saratoga’s economy has outperformed many other communities in Upstate New York, we realize that the number one challenge facing local employers across every sector is our historic labor shortage and that is why the Chamber will focus much of its time and resources in 2024 on talent recruitment via our online Job Zone and expansion of our Live Like You’re On Vacation talent recruitment campaign.” 

The Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce’s Board has a total of 27 members. The Chair Elect for 2022 is Randy Metevier of BKind Strategies, who will become the Chair of the Board in 2025. The 2024 Vice Chair of the Chamber’s Board of Directors is Melissa Johnson of Target Distribution and the 2024 Treasurer and Secretary is Eric Hennessey of UHY Advisors. 

By Neal Sandin

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has evoked both fear and excitement in the past year over its impact on the marketplace, economy, and our everyday lives. As a market researcher, my job is to discover ways for businesses, brands, and employees to add value to their interactions with consumers. However, in the face of a tool like AI that promises to expand in scope, reach, and capability in 2024 and the years to come, this can seem to be an insurmountable challenge. 

AI has moved into the popular culture and become democratic, thanks in large part to two key strengths. First, its uses and output are novel and exciting. Users now have more impact and control over this tool, with surprising, useful, and often eye-opening results. It can generate video, images, research papers and summaries, seemingly in the blink of an eye. Secondly, but perhaps even more importantly, it is convenient, as programs like ChatGPT have demonstrated. It is easily accessible and user friendly. Anyone can make something entirely novel in just a few minutes while walking down the street with a coffee in one hand and a smartphone in the other.

With these advances, there is also controversy. In 2023, the use of AI was one of the main points of contention in the 2023 writers’ and actors’ strikes. In addition, Marvel faced backlash for using AI during the credits of Secret Invasion. Book publishers have also been criticized for using AI for book covers, as was the case with Fractal Noise by Christoper Paolini. Much of this is depicted as not supporting creatives, and that is certainly a significant factor. However, there is more at play.

It is perhaps not coincidental that the rise in AI seems to correspond with the rise of the “Loneliness Epidemic.” More and more Americans across all ages and demographics are experiencing a sense of isolation, often with devastating effects. AI, a machine that responds to the user, may offer a sense of connection that so many need, fueling its popularity and uptake.