Category Archives: Economic Outlook 2019

By Sen. Jim Tedisco

As we close each year and begin a new one, I often watch one of my favorite films, the movie classic “It’s a Wonderful Life.” The film’s main character, George Bailey, played by the great Jimmy Stewart, gets to see what the world would be like if he never lived.

Thanks to guidance from his guardian angel, Clarence, Bailey comes to realize that if he never was born, his hometown of Bedford Falls would have been a much different and much darker place to live.

New York state, and in particular, Upstate New York, is about to have its “George Bailey moment” to see what our world will look like in a state government that has a singular voice, party, and region controlling our representative democracy. And it isn’t going to be pretty.

A Republican majority in the state Senate has been the last alternative voice for Upstate to act as a check on our chief executive and his band of merry progressives in the state Assembly.

That changed on Election Day, when our 32-31 one-seat Republican majority became a 23-40 downstate-driven Democratic majority. Now all levels of government in our state, the governor, attorney general, comptroller, Assembly and now Senate are firmly controlled by one party and one voice from predominantly one region of the state. One party rule emanating from one region is bad for any level of representative democracy.

By Todd L. Shimkus

Instead of a prognostication of what might happen, I’m going to focus on what I am reasonably certain will happen that will help our local economy to continue to succeed, grow and thrive in 2019.

In other words, here’s a few specific ACTIONS we look forward to taking in 2019:

• Cutting a ribbon to open Intrada Saratoga, a mixed-use housing development that will provide 158 units of affordable housing, near the junction of Washington Street and West Avenue in Saratoga Springs. We need workforce housing in Saratoga Springs so local employers can retain and attract employees who want to live and work in the same community.

• Breaking ground on the Flat Rock Centre project that will provide badly needed parking for the Saratoga Springs City Center, as well as downtown businesses. Beyond parking, Flat Rock Centre will include a section of the Saratoga Greenbelt Trail as well as a significant park and open space for a range of activities.

By Stephen Kyne

The year 2018 was an interesting year in the financial markets, to say the least. Characterized by all-time highs in stock indices, two whipsaw corrections, and a nearly 20 percent decline to cap the year off, the year was anything but boring. As it stood at close of business on Dec. 27, it looks like we’re going to end the year down, barring any last-minute surprises.

So, what happened, and where do we think the economy is headed?

First, to be absolutely clear, we do not think a recession is imminent, or even likely for at least another 12-18 months. That may seem contrary to what you are seeing on the news, but the news exists more for ratings than it does to inform Remember, nobody watches the news to see the house that didn’t burn down.

The economy is exceedingly strong, and most factors point to continued strength going into the new year.

With quarterly GDP growth in the 3-4 percent real (inflation-adjusted) range, it is generally accepted that a portion of this growth could be attributed to the effects of tax cuts, but no serious economist would attribute it all to that factor. We expect growth in 2019 sustainably in the 3 percent range. While that may not seem very high, consider that it is 50 percent higher than the roughly 2 percent annual growth we experienced from 2009-2016. The U.S. economy is strong.

By Dennis Brobston

The year 2018 marked Saratoga Economic Development Corp.’s (SEDC) 40th year as the premier economic development organization in the region. Thoughtful collaboration is how SEDC and its partners stimulated over $2.5 billion of new investment, nearly 1,700 new and retained jobs and $50 million in employee payroll since 2014.

In 2018 SEDC produced $44 million of investment retaining and growing 139 jobs. These jobs will add almost $5 million of annual wages to area communities. SEDC continually researches and keeps its fingers on the pulse of market demands enabling us to position Saratoga County’s strengths. We have several strong projects in the pipeline for 2019.

Promoting Saratoga, retaining, and growing jobs and wages remain SEDC’s mission. Our investor members, partners at the Saratoga County IDA, Clifton Park IDA, and Mechanicville-Stillwater IDA, plus strategic engagement with local, regional and state stakeholders remain key ingredients to success. Local communities’ policies and competitive tax rates continue setting a baseline for success.

Other assets have been relatively competitive property costs, an educated workforce, and proximity to 54 percent of North American consumers. Results evident to most are the $1.25 billion in local multifamily and hospitality construction in recent years.

BY PETE BARDUNIAS

The recent ups and downs of the stock market and the national political discourse are, in my opinion, a symbol of the battle for our communal soul going on at every level of our society, and our economy. For example, is the “think local” or “shop local” mantra a real thing in today’s world, or is it simply a feel good mirage in the era of huge online retailers and others, such as Amazon, Etsy and eBay?

Is our society a community of neighbors, or simply a collection of disparate groups and interests all going about their business, each with a different set of needs, wants and mutually incompatible agendas?

Finally, what should our business community look like. Is the Capital Region monolithic, where a “one size fits all” approach would most efficiently serve the needs of our regional economy? Or are we still a collection of relatively small, independent neighborhoods with diverse personalities, cultures, and interests requiring a customized array of localized services and individual attention in order to reach their full potential?

Count me squarely in the latter camp. My entire career in business has focused on the way individual communities operate, and one cannot find more diversity or splendid uniqueness than in comparing places like Clifton Park, Halfmoon, Mechanicville, Charlton, Ballston, Malta, Stillwater, Schuylerville, Waterford, and Saratoga, just to name a few.

By Marty Vanags, CEcD

In 2018, Saratoga County continued to be one of the fastest-growing counties in New York state, and for good reason. With an educated workforce, companies from diverse industry sectors, and a vibrant quality of place, we possess all the attributes that make our community a great investment for businesses and residents.

Our future is bright, but it is important that we continue to work with the public and private sectors to promote and plan for long-term growth. This means investing in economic development infrastructure, developing our workforce, attracting talent, and encouraging our companies to innovate and invest in Saratoga County.

Laying the foundation for future growth is the key to maintaining our economic prosperity today and long into the future.

Throughout 2018, the Saratoga Partnership marketed Saratoga County to businesses and site selectors throughout the world. We met with more than 75 companies and 60 site selectors to educate them on why Saratoga County is the ideal location for expansion. The Saratoga Partnership is why Saratoga County was successful in siting New York state’s largest battery storage project, Key Capture Energy project in Stillwater.

Through assistance by the Partnership, Proctors-Universal Preservation Hall is transforming a former church in Saratoga Springs into a year-round, world-class arts and cultural venue in downtown Saratoga.

By Mark Shaw

Last year we spoke about everything as a service. That is absolutely the case today. From phone systems to access control you can truly have access to all the latest technology in a monthly service fee.

This eliminates the need to purchase anything. Your business can gain access to the same technology used by the Fortune 500 without any major capital outlay.  This model will continue for the foreseeable future and if you have not already been reaping those benefits, talk to your technology department or company today.

In 2019 the focus is going to be hyper-active around security—security at every level in your business. From physically on the doors and entry points backed up by cameras, to your data on every device. We have been bombarded by news of firms being hacked, held at ransom, or even shut down due to breaches.

The government is taking notice and the same GDPR (rules for personal data use and security in the EU) are being considered here. New York is starting to crack down on vendors selling and installing security and camera systems. It is not often known, but to even touch a camera in a business workplace, the vendor must be licensed to do so. Combine this with talks about a New York State version of the EU rules for data privacy and you have a tornado of new laws set to make security the focus.

By Mayor Meg Kelly and Commissioner of Finance Michele Madigan

We are encouraged that 2019 will build off the economic successes of 2018, due not only the traditional economic indicators that reflect the dynamic economy of our city, but also the specific steps taken by Saratoga Springs City Council to drive future prosperity.

As of mid-December, the city had generated 10.1 percent more sales tax than during the same period last year. Moreover, 2018 is trending to be the best year of sales tax in city history, potentially exceeding $13 million.

Occupancy tax that was generated through the first three quarters of 2018 has also been at a record pace, a fact made more impressive given that it does not include units rented through sites like AirBNB.

The city is exploring ways to bring these rental units in line with traditional lodging establishments to ensure both a level playing field and the safety of renters, though accomplishing this requires the cooperation of the county and/or state, which is taking longer than expected.

One economic indicator that has lagged is mortgage tax, which is expected to fall roughly 20 percent below what was budgeted for 2018. This is largely driven by factors outside the city’s control such as rising interest rates and low inventory.

By Darryl Leggieri

Saratoga Springs continues to be a vibrant, historic and growing city with a bright future.

Discover Saratoga is fortunate to have amazing partners like the Saratoga County Chamber of Commerce, the City Center Authority, the Downtown Business Association, and many other community organizations to help navigate its growth. These organizations serve different purposes but are all on the same page when it comes to putting Saratoga Springs, Saratoga County, local businesses, and serving residents and visitors of Saratoga first.

As a key economic development engine for this community, the mission of Discover Saratoga (also known as the Saratoga Convention & Tourism Bureau) is to contribute a positive impact on the local economy by promoting and marketing Saratoga Springs and Saratoga County as a world-class destination for meetings, conventions, special events and group travel. The bureau team (one of the best around), is deployed to target each of these markets proactively to drive business into our county and city.

I feel so fortunate to be promoting such a great destination. With so many neighboring destinations becoming more competitive, we need to stay relevant by showcasing our current value propositions like walkability, safety, convenience and culture.

By Janet Besheer

Last year was quite the year for the United States economy. We have seen unemployment go to record lows, businesses reestablishing themselves here at home and the stock markets have hit record highs.

Although economists are predicting we are moving toward the end of the record-breaking,  9.6-year, bull market, we are not there yet. The economy in 2019 should continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate than 2018, but the good news is the next recession will probably not arrive in 2019. 

Home prices around the country rose throughout 2018 with limited inventory and low mortgage rates. According to the National Association of Realtors, “The imbalance between supply and demand is squeezing entry-level housing the hardest.”

Pundits suggest the housing market will slow down well into the year. 2019 looks to bring a stabilization of supply of homes for sale and vacancy rates for rentals, both of which are inching up again. Mortgage interest rates will rise in 2019 which will impact buyers and lower sales prices of existing homes.

First-time home buyers will be most affected. The good news here is that mortgage interest rates should remain below 6 percent, which is still an historically low rate. So what does mean this for real estate in our area?

According to the recently released Saratoga County Real Estate Index, Saratoga County led the entire Capital Region in single-family home sales and was the only local county to see an increase in single family home inventory over the past year along with the most single-unit building permits issued.