Category Archives: Economic Outlook 2016

Assemblyman Jim Tedisco represents
Glenville and parts of Saratoga County.

BY ASSEMBLYMAN JIM TEDISCO

As we enter 2016, one of the most important
ways lawmakers can ensure New York has a
vibrant economy is to clean-up the corruption
in Albany so we have an open and accountable
state government.

Our representative democracy was started
by a revolution in 1776 against the tyranny of
a king. Today, we have a state legislature that
has enabled leaders to act like despots by ceding
too much power to them for far too long.

The recently convicted leaders were able to
steal taxpayer dollars because of the unbridled
power that was given to them not by voters but
by majorities in each house of the legislature.

Currently, the Assembly Speaker and the
Senate Majority Leader–no matter who they
are–hold enormous power to abuse the system
and stop bills from coming to the floor
even if they are mathematically sponsored by
a majority of members from each house of
the legislature (76 out of 150 in the Assembly
and 32 out of 63 in the Senate). The current
system illustrates less of what a representative
democracy is and more of a kingship.

Dhianna Yezzi, owner, Integrated Staffing, Saratoga Springs.

BY DHIANNA YEZZI

As 2016 rolls in, it’s a time to take stock and
review the labor market, jobs and where the employment
trends will be focused. We continue to
see slow growth with an average of 100,000 jobs
created monthly.

The great news: It’s a strong job market. The
strongest in at least a decade. The Labor Department
predicts that all job losses from the Great
Recession will be fully recovered by 2020 and
that the labor force will return to full employment
with a 4-5 percent unemployment rate.
This is coupled with an average wage increase of
at least 2.5-2.8 percent. Until this point, jobs have
increased but wages have remained stagnant.
Employees are finally reaping the benefits after
a largely employer based recovery.

The fastest growing jobs are still in IT, healthcare
and financial services. As baby boomers age
out of the job market, those skills that service and
aging demographic will continue to grow.

Of course, social media will continue to drive
recruitment, as the market tightens for qualified
candidates, firms will rely more on passive
recruitment through referral bonuses, Linked-In
and Facebook. The gig economy will play a bigger
role in employment, offset by the rise of freelancing
and more effective technology. In fact, by
2020, 40 percent of the employment population
will be in a gig role as evidenced by the over 1
million Uber drivers.

Barry Potoker, executive director, Saratoga Builders Association.

BY BARRY POTOKER

As always, I am optimistic and bullish on the
future, especially since we live in such a special
place. We are still in the midst of a recovery but
I will start off with some good news from this
past year in the housing and real estate markets.

According to the Greater Capital Association
of Realtors from January to November, the number
of closed home sales increased by 10 percent
over the same period in 2014 and pending sales
contracts in November were 19 percent higher
as compared with November 2014.

On a national level, according to the National
Association of Realtors, existing residential home
sales continue to be strong. The smaller part
of the market, new home sales is also positive
although new home construction isn’t keeping
up with the demand. Based on recently released
housing stats from the federal Department of
Housing and Urban Development, the new housing
market is on its way back and continues its
steady recovery. The annual rate of November
housing starts rose 10.5 percent from October.
This is a terrific sign and above expectations.

Stephen Kyne, partner, Sterling Manor Financial LLC.

BY STEPHEN KYNE

The U.S. stock indices have flipped between positive
and negative returns a record 27 times this year.

The year 2015 was a particularly crazy year. From
extreme weather patterns, domestic and foreign
terrorism, and a circus of a pending presidential
election (which is only just beginning), to our first
horse racing Triple Crown winner in 37 years (who
suffered his only 2015 defeat in front of many of our
eyes at Saratoga Race Course), why should the stock
market have been any more predictable?

Let’s take a look at how 2015 shook out, and
where we’re headed in the 2016 economy.

U.S. GDP grew roughly as expected this year,
with final annual figures increasing between 2.5-3
percent. We expect that this relatively slow growth
will continue into 2016. While this is not ideal,
and certainly below historical averages, growth is
growth however you slice it.

Mark Shaw, president and CEO of Stored Technology Solutions Inc. (StoredTech).

BY MARK SHAW

The year 2016 will be the year of security.
Physical, virtual or cyber, it’s all about security.
2016 will be the year that security takes the stage
in a major way.

After all the breaches of last year, companies
big and small are being pushed to consider who
has access to their data and how do they protect
it. It will also be the year that organizations start
to consider how they consume technology services
and will demand the model bends to how
they desire to use them. The IT service model will
change from providing a set service list to one of
al la` carte services. Clients will want it their way
with a selection of services that meet their needs.

As small and large organizations alike continue
to expand the use of technology, the cloud
and the buzz word “internet of things” (or IoT),
they are starting to consider the security implications
of their decisions. Security is no longer
the ability to provide a penetration test of the
environment, list the items wrong and remedy
them. That is old thinking in a new world.

Businesses will want a macro-level view of
their security needs. They will want to know that
their data and access to their networks are constantly
monitored and any leak of information
is not just detected but qualified and quantified.
This holds true in both the physical and virtual
world.

Deanna Derway, president, Washington County Local Development Corp.

BY DEANNA DERWAY

As 2015 drew to a close, we once again reflected
upon the past year and optimistically look ahead
to the opportunities and challenges that will
shape the overall economy in the coming year.

The Washington County LDC has once again
experienced a steady increase in loan requests
as the health and optimism of small businesses
strengthens. In 2015, 10 new loans totaling over
$1 million dollars were added to our portfolio
in a variety of sectors. The improving economy
seems to have led to more spending, and increased
investments in equipment that has in
turn spurred production and produced healthy
economic growth.

We believe that this optimistic trend will continue
to grow into 2016 with this steady growth
as a welcome sign that the economy continues to
head in the right direction.

The New Year delivers new opportunity and
trends are looking positive for the economic
climate in our region. Some positive economic
signals we have seen include employment growth,
low unemployment rates, lower energy costs, and
increased business investment.

Pete Bardunias, president/CEO, Chamber of Southern Saratoga County.

BY PETE BARDUNIAS

The year 2016 is likely to be one of growth for
southern Saratoga County and the surrounding
area.

Various initiatives are taking hold throughout
the region and some of the plans which have been
in the works for awhile are coming to fruition.
From the perspective of this community, here
are some thoughts on what will make this a
very special year in the land just north of the
Kosciuszko Bridge’s twin spans.

The “word of the year” should be “workforce.”
Business leaders and elected officials should be
considering ways to positively impact the ready
workforce and workforce development situation
in the Capital Region. Businesses large and
small have open positions and are clamoring for
employees with relatively minimal training but
a strong work ethic and willingness to adapt to a
challenging work environment.

The number-one question I get asked is “where
can I find people who want to work?”

Martin Vanags, president, Saratoga Prosperity Partnership.

BY MARTY VANAGS

There is old joke about economists that says
you could lay all the economists in the world
down end-to-end and they would still never
reach a conclusion.

So it goes with economic forecasts; there
is ample material and information, but predicting
how the local economy will behave in
relation to regional, national and international
activities, all of which have a bearing on our
local economy, is daunting at best. Instead of
forecasting, let’s look at opportunities surrounding
the key industry sectors in Saratoga
County: advanced manufacturing, agriculture,
financial business process outsourcing,
research and development, and specialized
distribution.

“Great expectations” is the operative term
when it comes to the enormous investment
in advanced manufacturing–specifically the
semiconductor industry–in Saratoga County.
In 2015, worldwide spending on equipment
in semiconductor fabrication facilities or
“fabs” fell flat to 0.5 percent or about $35.8
billion. Fab equipment spending is predicted
to grow by 2.6 percent or $26.7 billion in 2016
according to the industry association SEMI’s
quarterly update. Leading industry market
groups predicted growth in the industry in the
upper single digits; they are now forecasting
1.3 percent growth.

What does this mean for GlobalFoundries,
our hometown fab? We are confident that their
$15 billion footprint and over 3,000 employees
will continue to have a positive impact on
our community. Success for our county will
hinge on our collective efforts to leverage this
investment.

Todd Shimkus, president, Saratoga County
Chamber of Commerce.

BY TODD SHIMKUS

Last year in this column, I said there were
four trends that the Saratoga County Chamber
of Commerce believed would drive our
economy forward. So how’d we do in our prognostications?

1. We said small business growth would
continue to drive our economy. In 2014, we
had hosted 80 ribbon cuttings. We added 60 in
2015. The talented volunteers from our SCORE
program saw record-breaking numbers of local
entrepreneurs and business owners seeking out
their free and confidential advice. These two
facts combine to tell us that there are many
people among us willing to create jobs and
invest in Saratoga County.

2. We said that the supply of available hotel
rooms would continue to increase. We added
that the appropriation of even more money for
our tourism promotion effort by the Saratoga
County Board of Supervisors would help to
drive up demand to fill many of these new
rooms.