Category Archives: Business Reports

By Steven Luttman

Few things warm my heart more than a trip to the Lake George outlets. 

Some might say cheap, others prefer “financially thoughtful,” but no matter what you call it I like finding a good deal. No doubt many of you feel the same way. Think for a moment about a purchase you’ve been considering recently. 

If this item were to become available for 79 percent less than its historical price how excited would that make you? That’s an amazing value. People line up hours in advance for Black Friday deals less great than this. But before you take out your wallet, what if at this exact same time last month the item could be had for 85 percent off. Given that the discount has shrunk, is it still attractive today? Of course, it’s a no brainer.   

Freddie Mac’s weekly lender survey found the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage  closed out the month of March at 4.67 percent, a sizable jump from the sub 3 percent we were seeing as recently as November. 

For anyone that’s been eyeing a home purchase or refinance it’s easy to think “I’ve dropped the ball here, rates are just way too high now”. With a short term perspective you wouldn’t be wrong. However if you were to line up the average rate for every single week over the past 50 years, rates are lower today than they’ve been for almost 80 percent of those data points since 1971. 

The rise in borrowing costs we’ve seen in 2022 can be attributed primarily to the Federal Reserve, who in an effort to combat inflation recently announced their first increase to the target Fed Funds rate since 2018. While Chairman Powell can influence short term yields via monetary policy, longer dated maturities are dictated more so by the buying and selling of Treasuries done by investors. It’s the latter that drives mortgage rates. 

By Brian M. Johnson, MBA, CLTC

Many clients have qualified assets they intend to use for retirement income. However, there is one risk that could potentially jeopardize even the most well thought out plan—the need for long-term care or extended healthcare. 

Long-term care is defined as needing assistance or supervision with everyday activities of daily living or ADL’s. A long-term care event is generally not cure oriented and the need for services, whether in home or a facility, is expected to last longer than 100 days. This type of care of referred to as custodial care, and a reason why traditional health insurance, Medicare and/or Medicare Advantage plans don’t cover it. Our default plan includes trying to qualify for Medicaid, which is a financially means tested program, which typically covers a nursing home, zero assisted living and limited home care or to use our own assets and income. 

A hybrid long-term care policy is another popular way to address the risk. It’s a type of permanent life insurance policy which offers three core benefits: An income tax-free life insurance death benefit long-term care services aren’t needed, cash indemnity benefits to pay for home care, assisted living and/or skilled nursing and a return of premium rider, which allows the insured to surrender the policy and receive either all or a portion of their premiums back with no penalty or charges.

Unlike a traditional long-term care policy, policy premiums are guaranteed and can never increase and benefits for are paid in cash to the insured, meaning the insured can use the funds however he/she sees fit, whether it’s to offset other bills, pay a family member or licensed providers. It’s an asset allocation approach to financing long-term care needs. 

By Ryan McCall, esQ.

Cryptocurrency has become one of the newest and most prevalent investments of the last two years. As a result, the courts are now faced with the prospect of having to evaluate and distribute cryptocurrency as a marital asset during a divorce proceeding.  

What makes this new and innovative technology so complex is figuring out how much each cryptocurrency is worth.

Assuming a spouse is using a U.S.-based exchange, determining the value of an individual cryptocurrency is relatively simple. All that is needed is a subpoena duces tecum to that institution to obtain the necessary documents. Under these pretenses, the subpoenaing attorney would receive statements detailing how many funds were listed with that exchange and the assets could be easily valued as of any given date just as if dealing with stocks and investment assets.

However, what has become increasingly difficult is the rise of popular international cryptocurrency exchanges. Many of these exchanges are unregulated and will not comply with United States federal regulations. Courts should not be deterred by this in establishing a value for cryptocurrency as a marital asset.

In theory, certain cryptocurrencies—with the most popular one being Bitcoin—utilize blockchain technology, with each individual Bitcoin having a different identification number than the next. Blockchain technology has a continuous ledger of ongoing transactions that are performed and tracked. 

With that being said, there are numerous ways savvy investors can attempt to hide their funds. The most popular way for someone to do this is through a “tumbler” which can issue a separate Bitcoin or fraction of a Bitcoin from the one currently in your possession. This creates a very difficult scenario for lawyers who would be faced with the task of attempting to track down these funds.

By David A. Kubikian, Esq.

The word “succession” has become a larger part of our lexicon because HBO a few years back created an immensely watchable show about the cut-throat world of a family owned media company where hundreds of millions of dollars are at stake depending on who gets to take over when Dad leaves (or dies).  

Entertaining? Yes.  Realistic?  Maybe.  A learning moment?  Definitely.  

Succession is defined as being “the action or process of inheriting a title, position, property, etc.”  Every business, regardless of size, will deal with a succession event if it is in business long enough.  While family in-fighting on private jets may be reserved for the Roy family on TV Sunday evenings, the planning as to the who, when, and how your business transitions from one generation to the next (or not at all) is something that should take shape long before an actual transition happens.   

To illustrate this point, consider a few common issues that come up:

1. The Estate Planning Angle. An all too typical scenario, the business, started by one generation has a younger generation heavily involved.  One child seems to have the chops to continue to run the business once “Dad” hands over the reins (that is IF he ever hands over the reins).  Another child is involved but not as much.  

A third child has no interest in the business and in fact lives out of town. Dad’s estate plan is to treat all of his kids the same. That is, his Last will and testament or his living trust state that all assets held by the trust or governed by the will pass evenly to his “issue”.  

Does this include the business?  The technical answer is that it depends on how the business is structured and how it is owned. Whether the business has operating documents concerning the transfers of shares at death or whether there is a buy-sell agreement in place.  In the event that the organizational documents reflect a certain chain of ownership, what impact does that have on the distribution of non-business assets via Will/Trust?  

By Michael cruz

We’re all aware of the current labor shortage. It makes it hard to fill your backlog or get your work done in a timely basis. It might make you feel justified in taking risks on marginal candidates for your jobs.

Don’t. Quick hires are all too often bad hires. And bad hires cost you lots of money both in hard dollars and your reputation. There is the cost of advertising and recruiter fees. These are direct hiring costs. When you must replace someone, you need to do this all over again, and the original costs are never recovered. 

Then there is the issue of what you paid that person while they were in your employ. The actual salary or hourly rate, plus the 20-30 percent benefit load, plus any expenses they incurred that were reimbursed. Add in what you paid to have their computer and cell phone set up, and costs for other tools. 

Add in what you spent for outside training courses. Add in any severance expenses. Severance can be minimal if they were not there long. However, when you linger in your decision, you are “running up the meter.”

Indirect costs are harder to quantify. Yet, they are far greater. You will need to take time to coach these people. And to listen to complaints about them. That negative energy drags us all down. Not only is the actual time spent wasted, but it also makes us less productive at the work we like to do.

It affects not just managers, but other employees as well. They will spend time complaining about your mis-hire. Often, they will have figured it out before you finally admit it to yourself. If they are in a customer facing position, they may have made life worse for a customer or client. You need to spend time repairing that damage. Lastly, they probably missed signals and lost some opportunities to pursue better initiatives that a productive hire would have seen.

By Rob Snell

If you’re a business owner, you’ve got so much to think about, and you work so hard, that it might be difficult to envision the day when you’re in a different place in life. 

However, that day will likely arrive, so you’ll want to be prepared for it, which means you’ll need an exit strategy. But how do you create one? 

Here are some steps that can prove helpful:

 • Start planning early. Making a quick exit is probably not a viable strategy for most business owners. Instead, you’ll want to plan far ahead for when you want to leave your business behind. 

This will require some thinking about the big picture: What will the company look like when you’re gone? Are you essential to its survival? If not, do you want to sell it to a key employee or an outsider? Or would you prefer to keep it in the family? 

After you’ve answered these types of questions, you can then move on to consider specific solutions, such as creating a buy-sell agreement with an employee or gradually transferring the business to family members. 

• Determine how to fill a retirement income gap. You could spend two, or even three, decades in retirement – so you’ll want to be sure you’ll have an adequate income stream to cover all those years. 

By Bill Canty, CPA, CFP

Even as the pandemic continued, 2021 was another strong year for the markets, though returns varied a bit across various market segments. The S&P 500 index gained 28.7 percent in 2021 as large cap stocks had another strong year. The index set numerous new highs during the year. This marks the third consecutive strong year for the S&P and for stocks. 

The tech-heavy NASDAQ  gained 21.4 percent in 2021 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 18.7 percent for the year. This represented only the sixth time that the S&P 500 beat both the Dow and the NASDAQ in the same year, and the first time this has happened since 2005. 

The Russell 2000, made up of small cap stocks, was up 13.7 percent for the year. Most broad non-U.S. stock indexes also under performed that U.S. market. 

Gains were not uniform and 2021 saw the rise of “meme” stocks where large groups of investors would buy shares of stocks like Game Stop and AMC Entertainment in an attempt to bid up the price and inflict losses on hedge funds who had short positions in the shares. 

Gains across the S&P 500 were concentrated to an extent, with five stocks comprising just under 33 percent of the index’s returns according to Goldman Sachs. The five stocks were Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla and Alphabet (parent of Google). 

Dissecting the gains in the S&P 500 showed that the technology sector of the S&P 500 played a true leadership role in the gains of the index in 2022 as it has over the past several years. 

By rob Snell

During your working years, you’ve probably met the costs of living through your salary. But once you retire, where will the money come from? Is there a way to give yourself a “paycheck” for retirement?

There is indeed—but you’ll have to do a good job of managing your available income sources. Here are some moves that can help:

• Accept dividends and interest payments. Instead of automatically reinvesting all your dividends and interest payments into your portfolio—which is an excellent strategy for building wealth—you might want to begin receiving these payments as part of your income. Keep in mind, though, that companies can lower or discontinue dividends at any time. However, it’s also true that some companies have consistently paid, and even increased, dividends over many years, and even decades.

• Choose an appropriate withdrawal rate. Once you’re retired, you’ll likely need to begin withdrawing from your investment accounts. But you’ll need to avoid taking out too much early in your retirement. You don’t want to risk outliving your portfolio. For many people in their mid-60s, a 4 percent annual withdrawal rate is a good starting point, but everyone’s situation is different, and your ideal rate will depend on several factors: your age, the size of your portfolio, other sources of income, and so on. Once you turn 72, you’ll be required to take at least a minimum amount from your traditional IRA and 401(k), but you can choose to withdraw more, if necessary.

• Maximize your Social Security. You have significant control over the amounts you’ll receive from Social Security. You can begin taking these payments at age 62, but they will be much larger if you wait until your full retirement age, which will likely be between 66 and 67. (You will receive the maximum amount if you wait until you reach 70.) 

By Rick Schwerd

The end of the year is always a good time to take stock of your investments and look ahead. Last year at this time, it was easy to be bullish on the stock market. Vaccine distribution was just starting, the country was continuing to reopen and unprecedented stimulus was being injected into the economy. 

As we head into 2022, there is still a lot to be positive about, such as robust company earnings and a very healthy consumer base. However, concerns about the Omicron variant, global supply chain issues, labor shortages and inflation are tempering enthusiasm.  

Stock markets had another good year. The Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500, an index of 500 of the largest companies in the U.S., is up approximately 20 percent year-to-date, as of early December. Small-cap stocks, mid-cap stocks and most international markets have also shown strong gains this year. As expected, short-term interest rates have remained near zero as the Federal Reserve continues its accommodative fiscal policy. Intermediate and long-term rates have risen as the economy has improved, but in a measured way.

As we look forward, there is plenty to be positive about. The U.S. consumer is doing very well, which is vital since consumer spending accounts for nearly 70 percent of our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The unemployment rate has fallen from 6.7 percent at the start of the year to 4.2 percent in November. Wages and salaries are up approximately 10 percent year-over-year. U.S. consumers have accumulated more than $2 trillion in excess savings and consumer net worth has surged about 30 percent since the start of the pandemic. These factors provide confidence that strong retail sales of goods and services will continue into 2022.  

11/15/2021 Update
November print edition headline Dow 3,600 corrected to Dow 36,000 in online and virtual editions.

by Kenneth J. Entenmann, CFA

Well, we finally made it. The long-ridiculed prediction by James Glassman and Kevin Hassert in their 1999 book titled “Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market,” has arrived.

It took a lot longer to get here than predicted, but we made it. The market has a habit of humiliating the great prognosticators of the world. But the central premise of the book remains based in the simple math of compounding. According to Wharton Finance professor, Jeremy Siegel, since 1802, equities have produced annual average total returns (including price changes and dividends) of 6.5 percent to 7 percent after inflation. In a recent Wall Street Journal article today, Mr. Glassman does the math, and it suggests we will have a Dow 1,000,000—in 50 years.

Unfortunately for market forecasters, the market never moves in a linear fashion and major disruptions can knock the markets off track, often for prolonged periods. In defense of Glassman and Hassert, few investors predicted the dot.com bubble, the Financial Crisis of 2008 and COVID. Yet here we are—Dow 36,000. The record is clear, there are no 20-year periods where equities posted a negative total return. It is a testament to the power of long-term, discipline investing.

Today, the equity markets have risen to record levels once again. As discussed on my Market Insights blog, these record levels have been achieved by incredible earnings growth, very benign interest rates and massive liquidity. The market is here despite a host of worries; COVID, dysfunctional government and the looming threat of inflation.

The economy slowed in the third quarter, posting a disappointing 2 percent GDP. The market has concluded that this slowdown is indeed “transitory” and was due largely to the August-September Delta surge. Today, COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths have once again plummeted, which is great news.