By Michael Brodt
Quarter 1, 2025
During a radio address on his hundredth day in office, on June 12, 1933, our 32nd President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, coined the term “First 100 Days.” Since then, the first 100 days of a presidential term are closely watched and widely talked about. We typically see a flurry of activity during these first 100 days; these first 100 days have proven to be active indeed.
The early part of President Trump’s second term has been largely dominated by talk of tariffs, resulting in a highly volatile stock market, desperate for answers on how potential trade wars might impact our U.S. economy. While the implementation of tariffs (and, in return, the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods) should not come as a surprise, the magnitude of the tariffs and the inconsistent message from Washington is certainly causing angst.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that tariff increases would likely result in a slowing of the U.S. economy and a delay in the progress being made toward lower inflation this year. However, he did say that the expectation would be that the tariff-related impact on the economy would be transitory and work its way through quickly.
After a series of interest rate cuts during 2024, the Fed left rates unchanged at both its 2025 Committee meetings, indicating that it is too early to tell the full impact of higher tariffs on inflation and economic growth. The Fed’s outlook for 2025 economic growth was adjusted to 1.7% from 2.1% and its outlook for inflation to 2.7% from 2.5%.
