
by Kenneth J. Entenmann, CFA®
2/12/2028
For better or worse, the first three weeks of Trump 2.0 have been fast and furious! A bit of an understatement! Overall, the financial markets have shown some volatility but have remained stable in the New Year. So far, the S&P 500 is up 4.06% this month and 3.1% year-to-date. That is a great start to the year, despite all the vitriol coming out of our nation’s capital, particularly as it relates to the potential impact of tariffs.
It is easy to fear tariffs. Economists of all stripes will tell you that tariffs are bad; they are inflationary and invite retaliation and distort world trade. They are correct! But they most often fail to include the second part of the full tariff comment…Tariffs are bad in a free and fair global market. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that there are many “free and fair” markets. Indeed, when tracking trade reciprocity, every major industrial country in the world except the U.K. and Australia is offside, meaning tariffs on U.S. goods are significantly higher than U.S. tariffs on our imports. Even our friends, the EU, Canada, and Mexico, are way offside and have significant protectionist tariffs. In some cases, entire industries are precluded from participating in a trade partner’s economy. The U.S. auto industry is priced out of Europe by tariffs that are ten times higher than U.S. tariffs on E.U. cars. Same for U.S. agriculture. U.S. banks are prohibited from doing business in Canada. Hardly “free and fair.” And then, there is China. China was permitted to join the World Trade Organization in December of 2001. The hope was China would evolve into a great global trade partner. It has certainly helped the Chinese economy become the second largest in the world. Sadly, they have been cheating global trade rules ever since. The debate over TikTok operating in the U.S. is interesting as U.S. software companies are prohibited from doing business in China. Yes, tariffs are bad, but global trade is hardly a “free and fair” market.
Yesterday, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, including on Canada and Mexico. This set everyone’s hair on fire! Mexico and Canada are our friends and our largest trading partners. How could we possibly pick this fight? True, we import large quantities of steel and aluminum from Canada and Mexico and this action has the potential to raise prices in the U.S. However, many of those commodities are made in China and shipped to the two countries to avoid direct China tariffs and exploit the friendly USMCA (U.S., Mexico and Canada Free Trade Agreement) tariff policies. Global trade gamesmanship at its worst, especially from our “friends” North and South of the border! Not exactly “free and fair!”