By Christine Graf
Although the U.S. economy remains strong, August’s job report has some Wall Street analysts worried. Economists expected 175,000 jobs to be added to the U.S. economy, but data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the jobs number to be 114,000. Unemployment also inched up, rising from 4.1 percent to 4.3 percent.
“In the last several weeks, we have had some weaker than expected economic data,” said Ryan Bouchey, chief investment officer at Bouchey Financial Group, an investment management company with 20 employees and offices in Saratoga Springs, Troy, Boston, and Florida.
“People have been getting high yields on money markets and cash—in some cases over five percent–but with some of this weaker than expected economic data, the anticipation now is for the Fed to lower rates by seventy-five basis points to one hundred basis points before the end of the year,” he said.
The anticipated rate decrease will impact investors whose fixed income strategies have relied on high yield money markets and short-term CDs
“2022 was a terrible year for fixed income, but during the last twelve to eighteen months we’ve been at the highest level for fixed income yields in twenty years or so,” said Bouchey. “It was a great opportunity to lock in intermediate to longer- term rates, but that’s not going to work heading into 2025. In the current environment, those folks who have been sitting on cash–trying to get the highest yield–need to start thinking about what their longer-term strategy is. Because it’s pretty imminent that the Fed will be cutting rates.”
For individuals at or near retirement, Bouchey recommends a 60/40 portfolio. Considered the standard-bearer for individuals with a moderate risk tolerance, the portfolio consists of 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds. Historically, the 60/40 portfolio delivers strong long-term returns.
“Sixty/forty is the standard benchmark portfolio for a retiree. Even as someone is approaching retirement, I think you need to take a long-term time horizon. You can’t get too conservative. You can’t panic when the market gets volatile,” he said. “Stocks over time are a lot less risky than bonds and cash when you look at the growth and when you look at what fixed income and cash does relative to inflation over long periods of time. I think it’s all about the right mindset, the right time horizon, and protecting those short-term cash needs that you have or that volatility that you may not expect.”
At Bouchey Financial Group, financial advisors recommend to their clients that they set aside two years of distributions in conservative holdings.
“The biggest risk is selling out of positions that are down in a bear market,” said Bouchey. “That will really impact the longevity of your funds, so it’s really important to have two years’ worth of distributions set aside conservatively. That way, if you have cash flow needs from your portfolio, you can live on that.”
According to Bouchey, not everyone who is nearing retirement opts for a conservative portfolio.
“We take the approach that even if people are over 50 or even retired that they don’t necessarily need to be in a much more conservative portfolio. It really depends on what their goals are,” he said.
For example, he said that some clients are interested in passing their wealth down to their children.
“For them, their time horizon isn’t twenty or thirty years. It may be forty or fifty years. In that case, they want that pot of money to grow as much as it can.”
With an investment threshold of $500,000, Bouchey Financial Group provides full-scale portfolio management, investment management, complex financial planning, retirement planning, and tax planning. The firm also host a radio show, Let’s Talk Money, on 810 WGY. The live call-in show is broadcast at 10 a.m. on Saturdays and 8 a.m. on Sundays. For more information, visit www.bouchey.com.