BY DHIANNA YEZZI
I have been accused, in writing annual
forecasts, of being too positive and too enthusiastic
about the upcoming year’s economic
environment, especially as it relates to jobs
and employment.
How can I not be enthusiastic? Every year
since 2009 we have seen growth.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on
Dec. 5 that employers added 321,000 jobs in
November, the most in nearly three years. This
has been the best 12 months of job increases
since 1999.
Job growth was widespread, led by gains
in professional and business services, retail
trade, health care, and manufacturing. Employment
continued to trend up in temporary help
services (+23,000), management and technical
consulting services (+7,000), computer
(+5,000), and employers are paying workers
more. Average weekly earnings rose 2.4 percent
from a year earlier, their fastest pace in a year.
Another piece of good news: Employment in
professional and business services increased by
86,000 in November, compared with an average
gain of 57,000 per month over the prior
12 months. So these job gains are not on the
low paying scale, the average hourly salary in
the professional and business sector is $24.66.
Even first-time jobless claims in the week
ending Dec. 13 were down 6,000 from the
previous week’s level. Economists at Briefing.com say the claims data continue to suggest an
economy at, or near, full employment.
In local employment news, the current unemployment
rate was 4.1 percent in Saratoga
County. And job growth also was strong, with
the Capital Region recovering all the jobs it had
lost during the Great Recession.
But the workforce is shrinking, and by
November was down to levels not seen for
the month since 1996. Analysts attributed the shrinkage to two factors: an aging workforce
that was retiring, and discouraged workers who
had given up the search for a job.
So where are the jobs in 2015? According
to Simply Hired, media, healthcare, manufacturing,
military and construction are the
industries that will continue to show growth.
Information Technology positions, including
web and software development job postings,
are up 15 percent from 2010. In fact, 70 percent
of Americans currently hold jobs that were
technically nonexistent 20 years ago.
So I’m still thinking positive for 2015. There’s
always a chance that Russia’s economic crisis
could affect our continued recovery or that
a Middle East conflict could disrupt growth.
But the falling oil prices are expected to help
the U.S. economy, and add to employment and
business activity.
This slow and meandering recovery that I
have had the pleasure of reporting about for
these forecasts over the last few years seems
to be continuing. But I think it’s time to retire
the “recovery” moniker that we have used
since 2009.
We have gained all the jobs lost from the
Great Recession and we can look forward to
sustaining that growth in 2015. We’ve recovered.