Back in the proverbial saddle, I’ve decided to surrender to the Truth: that I am not a handicapper. I’m the Anti-capper, as it were. I think that speed figures are voodoo. And we all know that I don’t believe that past performances necessarily are the indicator of future success–any more than the SATs can accurately predict a student’s potential in college.
I am very strongly opinionated, and I’m not going to change. And being opinionated isn’t a good trait for a REAL handicapper: some objectivity should be applied. But I’m stickin’ with my guns: for example, I love the trainers whom I love. Won’t ever suggest an R. Dutrow horse. Secretariat may have resurrected from his grave and race under R.’s colors, and I still wouldn’t go there. I’m too old to change my opinions without good reason.
And don’t talk science to me, when dealing with a species of animal that is as sentient, feeling and knowing as The Horse…emotions and spirit always–always–trump biology and statistics…
So here we go. Here are my picks–and some reasons–for the races for
Saratoga Race Course
Friday, 3 August 2012
Now, right out of the gate, I’m not going to give numbers to the three horses in any of the races. I can’t predict a straight trifecta any better than can my cat, and anyone who sells you a sheet of paper, of any color, and tells you that they can predict straight tris every time is lying to you. (And spending your hard-earned cash at Trotter’s.) So I like the three horses I’ve chosen for each race, below–and you can do with them as you like. Box tri them. Box exacta them. Bet one or all across-the-board. Laugh along with me, and realize that this is not handicapping for hard-cores. This is anti-capping, for those who really just want to have fun at the races.
RACE 1:
Victoria Lynn/Media Starlett – I like Rudy Rodriguez, lots.
Santorini Moon – Your Fun Longshot–and Maylan Studart is a great rider, ready to explode.
Emily Allstar – I just have a vibe about Emily.
RACE 2:.
Hot Rendezvous – I love Gary Contessa.
Neck of the Moon
With Honorandgrace – I LOVE the name, and Motion is a great trainer, whom I respect.
MY LONGSHOT: Ariadna
RACE 3:
Deb’s Golden Touch – I’m always going to pick a Levine horse, on that you CAN bet. And Rajiv? He’s Rajiv–great.
Greed and Fear – I love this name. Yep, I chose a horse because I love the name.
Bronze Beauty – I have no idea why. I felt drawn to the name. Take it or leave it, that’s all.
RACE 4:
Blind Hope – Another daughter of Pollard’s Vision. I don’t care what she has or hasn’t done in the past–she has PV’s genes, she’s got the potential.
Coaltown Legend – Levine horse. ‘Nuff said.
Iron Lou – Something about this name keeps drawing me back. Really.
RACE 5:
Midnight Taboo – Two-year-old. Pletcher. Need I say more?
Judge Wylie – Michael Matz–a gentleman AND a great trainer. And a Maryland-bred. Can you say, “Cigar”?
Central Banker – Another one for which I have no valid reason, other than that my eye kept going to the name. Maybe there’s a reason?
RACE 6:
Bella Silver – At 15/1, a nice longshot. And I love Jimmy Ferraro.
Bell Notes – Husbands and O’Brien, both talented beyond description. 30/1? Perfect, love it.
AP Hutchy
RACE 7:
Twigazuri Strait – I’m always going with Nihei, she’s The Real Deal.
Barrymore – Clement. Grass.
Vengeful Pride – 50/1, Yeah, Baby. And I love the name. (Strong letters, powerful sound.)
RACE 8: The John’s Call
Ballet Boy – Love Tom Voss.
Tahoe Lake – Love Kenny McPeek.
Harrod’s Creek – And you have to be a fool or just a mean person not to love Bill Mott.
RACE 9: The Honorable Miss
Island Bound – I just have a feeling.
Belle of the Hall – Tom Albertrani and West Point Thoroughbreds. They know horses.
Roman Treasure – Hushion is a brilliant trainer.
RACE 10:
Classical Fashion – Gary Contessa. Love him, love his horses.
Glory in Motion – Seth (Benzel) rocks.
Grace and Courage – I love the name–now, THAT’s a strong name. And with odds like 20/1, you could pick up some serious moolah.
You know me–always go for a longshot. Go for your favorite trainer and jock. Vibe out the name–if name jumps out at you, just go with it. And whatever you do–have FUN. This is a SPORT, folks, not neurosurgery.
🙂
